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Recreational Properties Are Turning Into Hot Prospects

If consumer confidence translates into actual purchases - and the economy stays on track - one of the next boom areas in American real estate may well be recreational property.

A soon-to-be-released national study documents a big jump in consumer interest in acquiring some form of recreational real estate within the coming decade. The shape, price and locations differ radically - traditional second homes, buildable acreage in the country, beach condos, rustic cabins in the woods, timeshares, campground sites - but the consumer intent appears to be the same: We want some.

Consider a few of the study's findings:

-- Whereas in the midst of the 1990 recession, just 15.5 percent of American households estimated that they had a 50 percent chance or better of buying recreational real estate during the decade, 35 percent do now. The key reasons, say the study's authors, are demographic and economic: Baby boomers are moving into the prime years for second home and recreational investments. And thanks to relatively low mortgage rates and steady employment growth, they increasingly have the resources to make those investments.

Preferred locations for purchases are beach areas (about 31 percent of all households surveyed), lake areas (30 percent), mountains (26 percent) and Caribbean and other tropics, (9 percent). Among the least popular sites with likely purchasers are golf-related (6 percent) and ski-related communities (5 percent). Desert locations - never a contender - drew a vote of just 1.5 percent of households polled.

-- The ideal recreational property is still the traditional detached single family home or cabin, but a fast-rising alternative is a vacant parcel of land for later construction of a second home. Two studies, in 1990 and 1993, found resort condominiums to be a strong second to detached units in popularity. But condos are now third.

Given this significant change, according to the study, "one would expect an increase in purchases of vacant recreational land in most resort areas of the country." Investors and environmentalists take note.

Your age, sex, marital status, geographic location and income greatly affect your prime choices in recreational property. For example, though nowhere near as popular as detached homes or land among a national cross section of households, timeshares are relatively hot among the youngest segment of recreational buyers - twenty- and thirty-somethings. Ditto for campsites. Single males have a statistically significant higher preference for resort condos and vacant land than single females. For that matter, females of all age levels turn in consistently lower interest levels than males in buying any form of recreational real estate.

-- The most popular states for second home and recreational purchases: Florida is first by a margin of nearly two-to-one over runner-up California. Colorado is third, North Carolina fourth, Texas fifth and Arizona sixth. Least popular? Iowa and Delaware, both named by just one-tenth of 1 percent of families polled as the ideal site for their getaway.

The new study, conducted by the Eugene, Ore., real estate research firm of Ragatz Associates, is the third of its kind since 1990. All three have been based on interviews with 1,000-person statistical cross sections of the nation's households - minus those who already own some form of recreational real estate. The Ragatz studies are prepared primarily for use within the recreational-home building and resort-development industries - the sponsor is the International Timeshare Foundation - but the results also serve as a barometer of consumer confidence and future buying trends.

For example, the surge in household confidence is significant not only for the magnitude of change between recession-bound 1990 and the current economy, but between the 1993 and the 1995 studies as well. Two years ago, 25.5 percent of consumers interviewed said they had a 50 percent or better chance of buying recreational property in the coming decade - nearly 10 percentage points less than the 35 percent who say that today.

Regional economic and attitudinal factors are also picked up by the study. Households in the Western states consider themselves significantly more likely to buy some form of recreational real estate in the coming years (40 percent) than households in any other region. Residents of the Northeast are the least likely to buy (31 percent). Residents of the South and North Central states come in at about the national average (34 percent).

The upshot for you of the new Ragatz research? If you already own recreational property in a desirable area, don't be surprised if you see its resale value appreciate a little faster as the decade progresses, thanks to rising demand. And if you haven't bought yet - but hope to down the road - it wouldn't hurt to begin scoping out alternatives sooner rather than later. With a baby-boomer bumper crop of would-be buyers on the horizon, you don't want to pay top dollar.

(COPYRIGHT, 1995, WASHINGTON POST WRITERS GROUP)