"It's just an overall decrease in consumer confidence - throughout the economy, not just in houses," answers Tim Strand, who with his wife, Eileen Collopy, has been looking at houses for more than a year.
"We've pulled in the strings," he said. "I haven't bought any clothes in a long time. We don't go out to dinner as much as we used to. We don't buy luxury items.'
Others put a different spin on their decision to postpone a house purchase.
"I'm not missing anything now if I wait," Dan Whelan said as he walked between houses in View Ridge during a "twilight tour" one recent week night. "I don't think anything is going to change dramatically in the next two years."
Whelan, like the curt woman who didn't want to be bothered, said he and his wife, Paige, are not serious buyers. They'd like more space than they have now because they are expecting a baby, but they do at least own a house. They also have reservations about "buying up" because they'll be living on one income for a while. And they know that if they make an offer on a house, it would have to be contingent on selling their own house during a slow market. That would stress them out and could prompt them to accept a low offer in the rush to sell.
If they do decide to buy, said Whelan, a manager with Andersen Consulting, they will be in control of negotiations. Underscoring his point, he gestured to two open houses across the street from each other and mentioned several others within walking distance - all open on a Wednesday night.
"If this seller doesn't want to negotiate, I can just walk across the street and talk to these people," he said.
But they won't get even that far unless they find the perfect house - newer construction, city neighborhood, quiet street, recreation room and a place for their birds.
Many buyers say they're looking for that perfect house. Some confess that's a fault.
"I guess we just haven't walked into a house and thought, `This is it,' " said Rebecca Evans, who moved here from Florida in July. "Maybe we'll never find one. After seeing all the houses we've seen, I might go back" and review some with a less critical eye, she said.
She and her husband, Jack Gossett, have eliminated 30 to 40 places in the search for their first house. They're limited financially; Gossett works as a biologist, but Evans, a cellist, has been unable to find permanent, full-time work.
Evans carries a binder with her during tours, filing information sheets into three categories: LIKE BUT SOMETHING WRONG; TOO MUCH MONEY (these remind her of features she likes); and NOs (she keeps these to avoid returning accidentally).
The ultra-organized approach helps Evans stay focused and avoid feeling overwhelmed, she says.
Her real-estate agent, Paul Calver of John L. Scott Real Estate, said he tells buyers to remember that by the time they narrow down the style of house and neighborhood they want, their true market is really only 20 or 30 houses - not the 22,000 up for sale.
Buyer Strand figures he and his wife have looked at 80 houses in the last 12 to 18 months and still haven't found one worth buying. They have three agents from one company looking for them at once.
"We're in no hurry. We don't have to move right now," he said, explaining that they already own a home. "We're just looking for something real special for us. It's a buyers' market. We can be picky."
John Jacobi, president of Windermere, says the wide selection of houses on the market is likely overwhelming buyers.
"I think that's just human nature, the laws of supply and demand," he said. "If you go to the mall and Nordstrom has a huge selection of sweaters, you might just look around, scratch your head and walk out."
By contrast, he said, in January 1990 buyers started bidding wars over the few houses on the market because they feared, "If I don't get a house, I'm history; I'll never get one."
Buyers and sellers alike are watching prices with interest.
The average selling price around Puget Sound has fallen since the peak of the market in May 1990, from $163,866 to $157,744 in July - the latest figures available from the Puget Sound Multiple Listing Association.
Potential buyers have reported seeing some good deals but also walking through a lot of overpriced houses. Two people complained about the houses they saw for $300,000 and more, including one with a view but needing a total remodel, and another that was decent but sat on a tiny, odd-shaped lot.
Real-estate agents report mixed pricing - some on the mark and some still high.
Buyers who track this information are playing the market as if they were stockbrokers. Many say they are confident prices will continue falling. Of course, just as with stocks, playing the real-estate market can be risky.
"Everybody starts buying after they hear the news that it's going up," said Lake Real Estate's Salisbury. "And then it's too late. They've missed the bottom. Very few people are lucky enough to buy at the very bottom."
Real-estate agents and lenders, most of whom are eternally optimistic, have predicted that an economic rebound will send prices rising quickly because so many people are ready to pounce as soon as they perceive the market has hit bottom.
That phenomenon would be exaggerated, seers say, by investors re-entering the market and by out-of-state buyers, who won't begin buying in Washington until they can sell in California or Texas or Massachusetts.
Steve Cassella, who is trying to sell his house without a real-estate agent, said he has seen an upturn in the market in recent weeks - more people through his weekend open houses and more questions that indicate buyers are serious.
Cassella had his house listed with an agent for three months this summer, then dropped the listing so he could cut his asking price without losing profit (he would save the agent's commission). The three-bedroom, 1 1/2-bath Craftsman bungalow is now advertised for $238,000, down from $269,000 then $250,000.
A couple of people have hinted they might submit offers, Cassella believes. But he also recognizes that if he doesn't sell soon, he might have a hard time; the holidays, a traditionally slow time for real estate, are fast approaching. His fiancee also is trying to sell her house so the couple can buy a new place when they marry.
Cassella says buyers are crazy not to be snatching up property now.
"I'll tell ya," he said, "if it happens that we sell both places, I'm going to be out there buying."
That's just the problem. Many prospective buyers are like Cassella: They'll get serious about buying only if they can sell their place or if the market turns or if they find that perfect deal.
Meanwhile, they'll continue to browse. |
