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Will you be SAD this winter?

 Experts have come up with a formula that can tell whether your winter will be a season of good cheer or one full of woe, it has been revealed.

"Winter blues" - also known as Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) - affects an estimated 30% of the population.

A reduction in daylight hours can have a biological effect which leads to depression, lethargy, reduced sociability and a craving for comfort food.

Working out your susceptibility to SAD can help prepare for the dark days to come.

The winter blues formula is X a x ((24-b) x (c+d+e) + f x (g+h+i)). X is a susceptibility rating with a score from zero to 828.

The letter "a" relates to "inherent vulnerability". If there is no history of depression in your family, "a" has a value of one. If there is a history of depression in yourself or your family, give it a score of two.

If both yourself and your family have a history of depression, give it a three value.

"b" is approximately the number of hours of winter daylight where you live (minimum six hours).

"c" is the psychological effect of leaving home or the office each day in the dark. Score zero if you leave home and return each day in daylight, two if you either leave the house or return home from work in the dark, and four if you both leave the house and return home in darkness.

"d" is a rating of work conditions in terms of light contact, from one to four.

"e" is a similar rating of light exposure at home, again on a scale of one to four. "f" measures your general stress levels, on a scale from one to five.

"g" relates to sociability. Rate your level of daily social contact on a scale of zero to four. "h" is a rating, from one to four, of how often you exercise.

"i" measures the quality of your diet on a scale of zero for a "very healthy, balanced diet" to four for a "very unhealthy diet with lots of stodgy processed food".

An X sore of zero to 100 means you are very unlikely to suffer from SAD. Between 100 and 300 you may suffer mild to moderate symptoms. Scores from 300 to 600 indicate that you are at risk of symptoms severe enough to affect your quality of life, while a rating of 600 to 800 denotes a "very high risk" of SAD requiring medical help.

The formula was developed with extensive research and advice from consultant psychiatrist Dr David Wheatley.

It was commissioned by Kira St John's Wort, makers of a herbal "happiness" supplement, as part of a study on depression.

Dr Karin Ruttgers, from Kira St John's Wort, said: "Many people suffer symptoms of winter blues without recognising their condition and are therefore unable to understand or alleviate their symptoms. We hope that this formula will make people aware of the triggers so they will be better equipped to cope with their winter blues."

Research has shown that standardised extracts of the St John's Wort plant can help relieve symptoms of SAD when taken regularly.