Is the Monroe doctrine dead?

Many blame President Bush and a pattern of shortsighted policies for the loss of U.S. clout in Latin America

By PABLO BACHELET

pbachelet@MiamiHerald.com

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Statue of James Monroe, fifth president of the United States, who died July 4, 1831. Some scholars wonder whether the Monroe Doctrine is dead, too.

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He calls U.S. politicians ''shortsighted'' for failing to reform U.S. immigration laws. He says Latin American populism is ''a pendulum swing towards disaster'' that deserves more U.S. attention.

''The United States, in my judgment, should invest enormous resources in Latin America, along the lines of a Marshall Plan,'' he said in a recent interview. ``Generally speaking, when you want to have a neighborhood that gives you peace of mind, you have to invest in that neighborhood.''

There may be little the United States can do for Saca. President Bush has increased aid to Latin America by record amounts and visited Latin America more than any of his predecessors, but he remains unpopular and unable to pass initiatives that Latin Americans want, like immigration reforms and free-trade pacts. His legacy may be the biggest loss of U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere in recent memory.

''Requiem for the Monroe Doctrine'' is how academic Daniel Erikson put it in an article for Current History, referring to the 1823 declaration by President James Monroe that put the Western Hemisphere off-limits to outside powers.

Trade between South America and China is booming. Governments from Canada to Iran are cutting deals in the region, and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has made challenging U.S. interests his foreign-policy mission, through everything from sweet oil deals to a TV news channel that rivals CNN.

WANING U.S. INFLUENCE

Think-tank specialists are debating whether Bush, globalization or both are to blame, and whether a change in the United States' unpopular position on Cuba might help. Democrats say the Bush White House has ignored the region. But the reality is that whoever wins the White House in November will confront a dramatically different geopolitical situation from the one that Bush faced when he was inaugurated in 2001.

''The world has changed in fundamental ways, and the big question is whether the next administration can understand that and adjust to that,'' Michael Shifter, with the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, told a recent gathering in Washington.

''The United States is not as important as it used to be. A lot of countries -- I'm talking about Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela -- have much more complicated international relations,'' he added. ``There are much more options than there were before.''

In the 1990s, most of Latin America and the United States shared a common purpose of promoting free trade, democracy and free-market reforms known as the ``Washington Consensus.''

But many Latin Americans became disenchanted with economic reforms of the 1990s and resented the Bush administration's focus away from the region after the Sept. 11 attacks. The Iraq invasion only angered Latin Americans more.

''There was a rejection of Washington Consensus-era policies,'' says Geoff Thale, with the left-leaning advocacy group Washington Office on Latin America. ``We haven't had anything to offer in its place.''

At the same time, other countries have stepped up their diplomatic and commercial outreach, with Europeans and Canadians pointing out that their foreign policy is more aligned with Latin America's preference for multilateral actions.

The European Union has signed trade and investment agreements with Mexico and Chile, and is negotiating similar pacts with Central America and the Andean Community of Nations, which includes Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia. The Europeans have also signed an ''Economic Partnership Agreement'' with the 15-member Caribbean Community.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, declaring Latin America a priority of his administration, last summer embarked on a week-long tour of Chile, Colombia, Barbados and Haiti.

He cast Canada, which is close to signing a free-trade agreement with Colombia, as a middle course between the United States' hard-edged capitalism and Venezuela's state-centered populism.

''Canada's very existence demonstrates that the choice is a false one,'' he said.

Canada is the region's second-largest investor, owning assets worth more than $96 billion. The Canadians are in free-trade talks with Caribbean nations and trade more than $1 billion a year with Cuba.

Then there's China.

Bilateral trade between China and Latin America jumped from $200 million in 1975 to $47 billion in 2005. According to the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, between 2000 and 2006 Brazil increased its imports from China six-fold, to $8 billion. China is Chile's second-biggest market.

While seeking raw materials for its industries, China has kept a low political profile, maintaining friendly ties with Cuba and Venezuela but not directly challenging U.S. interests.

China also has historic ties with big left-wing parties in Mexico, Peru and Argentina, writes Argentine scholar Sergio Cesarín in a recent Woodrow Wilson International Center report on China's rise in Latin America.

''When Chinese leaders speak out about their aims and goals in the region, they utilize concepts like growth, mutual benefits, non-interference in internal affairs and, most importantly, development,'' he writes. These are more palatable to left-wing leaders than free trade or free-market reforms recommended by Washington, he adds.

In 2005, Air China started weekly flights between Beijing and Sao Paolo, the first such route between China and Latin America by a Chinese carrier. Presidents Hu Jintao of China and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva swapped visits in 2004.

Since 2005, Chávez and Iran's President Ahmadinejad have visited each other seven times, signing deals on issues as varied as tractor manufacturing and oil exploration and establishing a direct flight between Caracas and Tehran, with a stopover in Damascus. Ahmadinejad and other Iranian officials have also visited Chávez's allies in Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia.

ACTIONS BY THE U.S.

The United States, of course, remains the hemisphere's dominant power. Brazil imported six times more from the United States than China. Immigrants to the United States sent $45 billion in remittances to their families in the region last year.

And Bush administration officials dispute the notion that they've ignored the region.

The State Department routinely lists achievements like a $3.4 billion debt-relief package for the hemisphere's five poorest countries, an ethanol-promotion deal with Brazil and a new $1.4 billion anti-drug-trafficking aid package for Mexico and Central America awaiting congressional approval.

Total U.S. aid to Latin America jumped from $1.2 billion in 2001 to -- if Congress approves a budget request -- $2.7 billion in 2009, according to the aid-tracking website justf.org.

Bush has negotiated numerous free-trade deals and met his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva nine times. Bush's trip to Latin America last year was his eighth, more than any president in U.S. history.

The free-trade umbrella now includes Chile, Central America, the Dominican Republic and Peru, with Colombia and Panama waiting in the wings.

But all that doesn't impress the critics.

''Certainly, there is no consistent pattern of interest or concern in the administration for Latin America,'' said Riordan Roett, of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and an informal advisor to Sen. Barack Obama's campaign. ``Maybe we can't expect this, but there's been no grand scheme, broader integration between the U.S. and Latin America. We're each kind of going our own way.''

Luigi Einaudi, a former U.S. diplomat and head of the Organization of American States, says the United States would generate more goodwill if it shuttered the Guantánamo Bay detention center in Cuba, passed a free-trade agreement with Colombia and stopped deporting 70,000 ''criminal aliens'' every year to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean ill-equipped to receive them.

Some critics say changing the Cuba policy also will help. A new Cuba approach, says Lawrence Wilkerson, a former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, would be a ''superb opening toward refurbishing'' the Latin America policy that he describes as ``bordering on failure.''

One program initiated by Bush is seen as working: the Millennium Challenge Corporation, which gives aid to countries that pass a set of 17 development indicators, put together by outside watchdogs like Transparency International.

John Danilovich, who heads the program, says MCC is so popular that even Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, an old Cold War foe and Chávez ally, had to admit as much when he visited an MCC program in the northern town of Chinandega.

With Danilovich at his side, Ortega ended his speech at a local plaza with the words ``Viva Estados Unidos!''

Adnan pities Britney and wanted us to run away together, says 'his secret girlfriend'

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But the Brummie-born snapper is now back with the troubled pop star, and now his secret girlfriend, model and actress, Amanda Pagel, has spoken out for the first time revealing that Adnan lied to her about his relationship with Britney denying it was sexual.

Amanda revealed how Adnan used to leave her straight after they had sex, to go to see Britney, and that he "pitied" her, and wanted to run away to Italy with his secret girlfriend.

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Secret lovers: Model and actress Amanda Pagel with Adnan Ghalib earlier this month, when news of their relationship broke. Amanda has now spoken out about her relationship with Adnan who she says told her he 'pitied' Britney

In an interview with Look magazine Amanda said: "I'd just split up with my boyfriend, but I was lonely and wanted to make new friends."

He promised Amanda his relationship with Britney was not sexual and kept reminding Amanda of what a hard time he was having.

"We started texting 40-50 times a day, just jokes to start off with, then flirty messages. I'd text "can't wait to see you" and he'd reply pretty much the same thing. We saw each other pretty much every day."

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Back together: Britney with Adnan, seen together for the first time in several weeks. Adnan told his secret girlfriend that his relationship with the star was not sexual, and that as soon as she was 'better' he and Amanda could go out in public together

She soon fell for Adnan calling him a "fantastic kisser" and "really smooth". As the pair grew closer, Adnan always visited her at her home, but they never went out in public so as not to "betray" Britney.

But he clearly didn't find it difficult to betray his feelings about the singer to Amanda.

Pitied: Britney seen today in Los Angeles

She explained: "'He kept saying: As soon as she's better and back on her own two feet doing her own thing, we can go public.

"And he told me he 'pitied' her and felt really sorry for her. She'd been through a lot and he used to say he was the only one that she trusted."

And he suggested to Amanda that they run away together, and start a new life in Italy, where they could start a family.

Amanda said Adnan would "leave pretty quickly, after we had sex, and I think he used to head straight to Britney's."

She revealed that Britney sent Adnan hundreds of texts daily, and phoned him constantly.

She said: "Britney used to call all the time when he was over at mine. He'd answer immediately and walk into another room to speak - he always whispered into his mobile and shut the door."

But Amanda only realised she had been taken in by the 'smooth' Brummie, when she woke up to find the story splashed all over the media about the row between Britney and Adnan after the singer found their flirty texts on his mobile phone.

Britney allegedly flew into a rage, throwing the photographer's iPhone into her pool after discovering the suggestive messages.

Heartbroken Amanda said: "I felt sick. I knew the texts were one's we'd sent to each other. I used to send him texts saying "I miss your kisses" and couple y stuff like that but when I found out that Britney had seen them I freaked out and called him immediately."

Adnan promised her the story was untrue, but when days later another story broke claiming Britney was pregnant Amanda realised that that there were "three of us in this relationship - and I would never be a priority."

And callous Adnan even tried to justify his behaviour telling heartbroken Amanda "It's just time-share", confirming to Amanda that he had been sleeping with Britney all along.

Soon after a picture of Adnan leaving Amanda's home was released to the media and cowardly Adnan told her they should put things on hold until everything "blows over".

Amanda said; "I kept asking him why I had to wait for it to blow over - people were going to think of me as the girl who stole Britney's boyfriend, and that wasn't the case.

"I know he'll go mad when he reads this, but I want people to know I didn't steal Britney's boyfriend."

The pair are still in contact, with Adnan texting Amanda recently to wish her a happy 21st birthday. And a text the other day which said: "I miss you...your face, your smile, the taste of your lips, but most of all I miss your heart."

And Amanda offered some advice to the troubled star, who has since reunited with the cheating photographer.

She said: "I'd tell Britney to be careful who she trusts. I don't believe he wasn't sleeping with Britney. I just hope she doesn't get hurt like I did."

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